Carrum Downs (postcode 3201) sits in the outer south-east of Melbourne, roughly 48 kilometres from the CBD within the City of Frankston local government area. Its SEIFA IRSAD score of 950 places it in decile 4 of 10 nationally and at the 25th percentile within Victoria, meaning approximately three quarters of Victorian suburbs record a higher relative socioeconomic advantage. That reading is a meaningful macro signal, not a verdict on any individual property. PropertyRanker uses it as one of twelve scoring inputs, and a specific listing inside this postcode can still score well or poorly depending on factors the suburb-level index cannot see.
ABS 2021 IRSAD release. Score 950 (national mean = 1000).
A SEIFA IRSAD score of 950 sits 50 points below the national mean of 1000. At the 25th state percentile, Carrum Downs is in the lower quarter of Victorian suburbs on the combined measure of income, education, occupation, and access to resources. For PropertyRanker's model, this reading feeds three criteria directly: economic_strength (where below-average scores compress the ceiling on long-run capital growth relative to higher-decile suburbs), hazard_risk (where lower socioeconomic areas can correlate with higher insurance and maintenance cost pressures), and entry_point_risk (where affordability relative to the metro median can cut both ways, offering lower entry costs but also signalling structural demand constraints).
Carrum Downs is a large, established suburb of roughly 22,000 residents with a mixed residential, commercial, and industrial footprint. It has no direct rail connection, which is a persistent infrastructure gap relative to neighbouring Seaford and Frankston North. Bus services link to Frankston. The suburb sits close to Peninsula Link and EastLink, giving road-based access to both the Mornington Peninsula and the broader south-east corridor. That road connectivity supports the local industrial and employment base, which in turn underpins rental demand from working households.
For strategy matching, the suburb's below-average SEIFA profile and relative affordability within the Melbourne metro frame suggest it is less naturally aligned with a Capital Growth strategy (which typically targets higher-decile, supply-constrained locations) and more worth examining under a Balanced or High Yield lens, where the gross-yield anchor sits around 5 to 6 percent. Investors should verify whether current asking rents and prices actually support those yield thresholds before drawing any conclusions.
Carrum Downs (VIC 3201) recorded a median house sale price of approximately $790,000-$820,000 as of mid-2026, with annual price growth ranging from +10.5% to +13.5% depending on the source period, according to propertyvalue.com.au (Cotality/CoreLogic data) and yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au. The market is characterised by very tight supply conditions, with stock on market at just 0.29% and inventory at 1.2 months, average days on market of 7-13 days, and a vendor discount of -3.7%, all pointing to strong seller conditions. HtAG Analytics (June 2026) reports a vacancy rate of 0.94% and confirms the suburb is exhibiting capital-led momentum with +11.9% YoY price growth.
Anchor points pulled per refresh from publicly available suburb profiles. Approximate; not a moving average.
All three signals are favourable for sellers: vacancy rate is very low at 0.94% (tightening), average days on market is just 7-13 days (shortening), and vendor discounting is a tight -3.7% (narrowing), compositing to a 'hot' band.
Sources: Carrum Downs VIC 3201 Suburb Profile & Property Report (2026-06-26); Carrum Downs House Prices & Property Trends (2026-01-01); Carrum Downs VIC 3201 Property Market and House Prices 2026 (2026-06-30); Carrum Downs VIC 3201 Property Prices, Rent, Yield & Growth (2026-07-27); Carrum Downs Property Market and Trends (2026-02-26) · Refreshed 12 Sep 2026
PropertyRanker scores any Australian property against 12 criteria across three pillars: Growth, Cashflow, and Risk. SEIFA is a primary signal for economic strength and a supporting one for entry-price risk. It also informs the crime side of hazard risk, though physical overlays like flood, bushfire and coastal exposure, and recorded crime data where available, take priority there. The decile of 4 shown above gives a listing in Carrum Downs a broadly mid-band starting line on economic strength and entry-price risk relative to the national median postcode.
On top of that, PropertyRanker chooses one of four strategies (Balanced, Growth, Yield, Regional) and applies a per-strategy yield anchor. The anchors are 3.5% for Growth, 5% for Balanced, 6% for Yield, and 7% for Regional. A mid-band postcode does not favour one strategy outright; Balanced (5% anchor) is the common fit, with Yield (6%) reachable where a specific listing rent-to-price ratio supports it.
Read the scoring guide for the full criteria list and how the verdict thresholds work.
The SEIFA reading establishes the macro frame, but it cannot see the variables that determine whether a specific listing is worth pursuing. Before forming a view, investors should check current SQM vacancy data for postcode 3201, since rental demand in outer suburban corridors can shift materially with new supply or employment changes nearby. The suburb's mixed zoning (residential alongside commercial and industrial pockets) means overlay status and flood or inundation risk can vary significantly from one street to the next, so a full overlay check via the Victorian Planning Property Report is essential. For units and townhouses, body corporate financials and any outstanding special levies are a separate risk layer the postcode score cannot capture. Pricing should be tested against recent comparable sales rather than relying on broad suburb medians. Score the specific listing in PropertyRanker to get a verdict that accounts for all twelve criteria, including current SQM vacancy, body corporate health, flood and overlay status, and pricing against recent comparable sales.
The suburb's SEIFA IRSAD score of 950 (decile 4 of 10, 25th percentile in Victoria) signals a below-average socioeconomic profile, which PropertyRanker treats as a constraint on economic_strength and long-run capital growth potential relative to higher-decile suburbs. That does not make every listing here a poor investment, because entry price, rental yield, vacancy, and individual property condition all matter independently. The honest answer is that the macro frame is cautious, and a specific listing needs to be scored on all twelve criteria before drawing a conclusion.
Given the below-average SEIFA reading and the suburb's positioning as an affordable outer south-east option, a Capital Growth strategy (which targets roughly 3.5 percent gross yield and relies on strong socioeconomic tailwinds) is harder to justify here without additional supporting signals. A Balanced strategy (around 5 percent gross yield) or a High Yield strategy (around 6 percent) is more consistent with the suburb's profile, provided current rents and prices actually support those thresholds. Investors should verify live yield figures for the specific property type they are considering rather than relying on suburb-level averages.
The primary macro risk flagged by PropertyRanker's model is the below-average SEIFA score, which correlates with softer income growth, higher tenant turnover, and a narrower pool of owner-occupier buyers to support resale values. The suburb also lacks direct rail access, which limits its appeal relative to nearby Seaford and Frankston North for tenants who depend on public transport. At the property level, the mixed zoning means flood overlays and planning constraints can vary sharply by street, and any strata or body corporate exposure adds a layer of financial risk that the postcode-level score cannot assess.
PropertyRanker runs twelve scoring criteria across macro and micro signals. The SEIFA IRSAD reading for postcode 3201 (score 950, decile 4) feeds directly into economic_strength, hazard_risk, and entry_point_risk on the macro side. The remaining criteria draw on property-level inputs including current SQM vacancy for the postcode, body corporate health for strata properties, flood and planning overlay status, and pricing relative to recent comparable sales. The suburb-level SEIFA reading is fixed, but the overall score for a specific listing will vary depending on those micro inputs.
Carrum Downs, Seaford (3198), and Langwarrin (3910) all sit within the City of Frankston LGA and share a broadly similar outer south-east Melbourne context. Seaford has a direct rail connection on the Frankston line, which is a structural advantage for tenant demand and resale liquidity that Carrum Downs does not currently match. Langwarrin sits to the south and has a different land-use mix. Each suburb will produce a different PropertyRanker score for a given listing because micro-level inputs such as vacancy, overlay status, and comparable sales diverge even within the same LGA.
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